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A study conducted by GlobalData suggests that Vietnam’s telecom and pay-TV services market is expected to reach $6.5 billion in 2026.

The data and analytics firm said that the market will see a marginal compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% over the 2021-2026 period, thanks to the increase in mobile data subscriptions.

According to its “Vietnam Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report,” mobile voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period amid the users’ shift to over-the-top (OTT) based communication platforms and a drop in mobile voice average revenue per user (ARPU).

Mobile data service earnings are, meanwhile, estimated to rise at a CAGR of 10.2%, and this is attributed to the growing number of mobile internet subscriptions and increases in data ARPU.

Aasif Iqbal, telecom analyst at GlobalData, comments: “4G services in Vietnam are expected to surpass 3G to become the leading mobile technology by subscriber base in 2022. 4G subscriptions are set to grow rapidly and will account for 62.3% of total subscriptions by 2026, supported by ongoing LTE network expansions by mobile network operators (MNOs). With the country’s telecom regulator planning to issue 5G licenses in 2022 and all the key operators – Viettel, VNPT-Vinaphone, and Mobifone – already carrying out 5G trials, Vietnam hopes to see the commercial rollout of 5G services by the end of 2022.”

Amid the expected weakening in voice service revenue over the six-year forecast, revenues from the fixed broadband service are seen to increase. This is due to the growth in fiber-to-the-home/building subscriptions backed by the government’s initiatives to expand fixed broadband networks in the country.

Aasif adds, “The adoption of fiber broadband services in the country is growing at a healthy pace, primarily supported by continued rise in the demand for high-speed data services and expansion of fiber-optic network infrastructure. Under the National Digital Transformation Programme, the Ministry of Communications aims to extend fiber-optic network coverage to 100% of communes and 80% of homes by the end of 2025.”

Moreover, pay-TV service earnings in Vietnam are projected to have negative growth over the six-year period, following continued losses in DTH subscriptions and declining aggregate pay-TV ARPU. And cord-cutting trends will continue to hit pay-TV service revenue over the forecast period.

Aasif concludes, “In 2021, Viettel was the leading player by subscriptions in the mobile services segment. The company will continue to hold the top spot throughout the forecast period with its focus on 4G network expansion and 5G network development. VNPT topped the fixed voice and fixed broadband segments. In fixed broadband segment, VNPT will continue to lead through 2026, supported by its strong presence in the FTTH segment. VTV led the Pay-TV services market in 2021 by subscriptions, thanks to its strong position in the cable TV segment.”

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