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Japan’s mobile service revenue is expected to increase from $65 billion in 2023 to $87.9 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%. According to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, the growth is primarily driven by the mobile data service segment.

GlobaData’s Mobile Broadband Forecast for Q2 2023 revealed that, while mobile voice service revenue is expected to decline at a 0.8% CAGR from 2023–2028 due to consumers shift towards over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms, mobile data service revenue will likely grow at an 8.2% CAGR throughout the forecast period.

“The average monthly data usage is forecast to increase from 12.9GB in 2023 to 24.4GB in 2028, driven by the increasing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of the growing availability and adoption of 5G services and the data-centric packages offered by MNOs,” explained Hrushikesh Mahananda, telecom research analyst at GlobalData.

4G is forecast to still be a leading technology with more subscribers than 5G until 2025. But due to 5G expansions by leading telcos in Japan, 5G subscriptions are expected to surpass 4G subscriptions in 2028.

Mr. Mahananda concluded, “NTT Docomo will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2028 given its strong focus on 5G network expansion across the country as it aims to expand its 5G coverage to 97% of the population by 2024. The operator has also partnered with Nokia, NEC and Fujitsu to develop new technologies for experimental trials of 6G services, which it aims to commercialize by 2030.”

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